Thursday 5 November · 21:00
Celta de Vigo – Union Saint-Gilloise
Celta de Vigo
8th · attack 1.10 · defence 0.99
Union Saint-Gilloise
4th · attack 1.49 · defence 0.62
Our model makes Union Saint-Gilloise favourites for Celta de Vigo – Union Saint-Gilloise, at 39% — but only 3.0% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 5 November 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Celta de Vigo win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Union Saint-Gilloise win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.30 goals for Celta de Vigo and 1.37 for Union Saint-Gilloise, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
All the odds and every market in the web app →
Expected goals: 1.30 for Celta de Vigo, 1.37 for Union Saint-Gilloise.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Celta de Vigo wins; above it, Union Saint-Gilloise wins.
| Celta de Vigo \ Union Saint-Gilloise | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Celta de Vigo goals in rows, Union Saint-Gilloise goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Celta de Vigo v Union Saint-Gilloise?
Union Saint-Gilloise, at 39%. The full split is Celta de Vigo 36%, draw 25%, Union Saint-Gilloise 39%.
What is the most likely score in Celta de Vigo v Union Saint-Gilloise?
1–1, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Celta de Vigo v Union Saint-Gilloise?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 50% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.30 for Celta de Vigo and 1.37 for Union Saint-Gilloise.
Will both teams score in Celta de Vigo v Union Saint-Gilloise?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Celta de Vigo keep a clean sheet or Union Saint-Gilloise fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 24 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
