Thursday 22 October · 21:00
Celje – Salzburg
Celje
th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.90
Salzburg
2nd · attack 1.36 · defence 0.90
Our model makes Salzburg favourites for Celje – Salzburg, at 51%. Kick-off 22 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Celje win 26% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Salzburg win 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.16 goals for Celje and 1.74 for Salzburg, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.16 for Celje, 1.74 for Salzburg.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Celje wins; above it, Salzburg wins.
| Celje \ Salzburg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Celje goals in rows, Salzburg goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Celje v Salzburg?
Salzburg, at 51%. The full split is Celje 26%, draw 23%, Salzburg 51%.
What is the most likely score in Celje v Salzburg?
1–1, which comes up in 10.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Celje v Salzburg?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.16 for Celje and 1.74 for Salzburg.
Will both teams score in Celje v Salzburg?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Celje keep a clean sheet or Salzburg fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
