Europa LeagueThursday, October 15 · 06:45 PM
AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Be'er Sheva
AZ Alkmaar
1st · attack 1.32 · defence 1.01
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
th · attack 0.79 · defence 1.33
Our model makes AZ Alkmaar favourites for AZ Alkmaar – Hapoel Be'er Sheva, at 59%. Kick-off October 15, 2026, 06:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, AZ Alkmaar win 59% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Hapoel Be'er Sheva win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.83 goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.93 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.83 for AZ Alkmaar, 0.93 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AZ Alkmaar wins; above it, Hapoel Be'er Sheva wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
AZ Alkmaar goals in rows, Hapoel Be'er Sheva goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
AZ Alkmaar, at 59%. The full split is AZ Alkmaar 59%, draw 22%, Hapoel Be'er Sheva 19%.
What is the most likely score in AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
1–0, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.83 for AZ Alkmaar and 0.93 for Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet or Hapoel Be'er Sheva fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.