Thursday 5 November · 18:45
Anderlecht – Salzburg
Anderlecht
5th · attack 1.19 · defence 0.98
Salzburg
2nd · attack 1.37 · defence 0.88
Our model makes Anderlecht favourites for Anderlecht – Salzburg, at 50%. Kick-off 5 November 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Anderlecht win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Salzburg win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.62 goals for Anderlecht and 1.09 for Salzburg, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.62 for Anderlecht, 1.09 for Salzburg.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Anderlecht wins; above it, Salzburg wins.
| Anderlecht \ Salzburg | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Anderlecht goals in rows, Salzburg goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Anderlecht v Salzburg?
Anderlecht, at 50%. The full split is Anderlecht 50%, draw 24%, Salzburg 26%.
What is the most likely score in Anderlecht v Salzburg?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Anderlecht v Salzburg?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.62 for Anderlecht and 1.09 for Salzburg.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht v Salzburg?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Anderlecht keep a clean sheet or Salzburg fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 24 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
