Europa LeagueThursday, October 15 · 09:00 PM
AFC Bournemouth – Sturm Graz
AFC Bournemouth
17th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.09
Sturm Graz
4th · attack 1.20 · defence 0.92
Our model makes AFC Bournemouth favourites for AFC Bournemouth – Sturm Graz, at 78%. Kick-off October 15, 2026, 09:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, AFC Bournemouth win 78% of the time, the draw comes up 15% and Sturm Graz win 7%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 15.1% of simulations.
We expect 2.35 goals for AFC Bournemouth and 0.55 for Sturm Graz, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 38%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.35 for AFC Bournemouth, 0.55 for Sturm Graz.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AFC Bournemouth wins; above it, Sturm Graz wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
AFC Bournemouth goals in rows, Sturm Graz goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AFC Bournemouth v Sturm Graz?
AFC Bournemouth, at 78%. The full split is AFC Bournemouth 78%, draw 15%, Sturm Graz 7%.
What is the most likely score in AFC Bournemouth v Sturm Graz?
2–0, which comes up in 15.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AFC Bournemouth v Sturm Graz?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 2.35 for AFC Bournemouth and 0.55 for Sturm Graz.
Will both teams score in AFC Bournemouth v Sturm Graz?
Both teams score in 38% of simulations. AFC Bournemouth keep a clean sheet or Sturm Graz fail to score in the remaining 62%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.