Thursday 5 November · 18:45
AC Milan – Ferencvárosi
AC Milan
4th · attack 1.31 · defence 0.92
Ferencvárosi
th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.04
Our model makes AC Milan favourites for AC Milan – Ferencvárosi, at 65%. Kick-off 5 November 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, AC Milan win 65% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Ferencvárosi win 14%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.96 goals for AC Milan and 0.78 for Ferencvárosi, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
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Expected goals: 1.96 for AC Milan, 0.78 for Ferencvárosi.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AC Milan wins; above it, Ferencvárosi wins.
| AC Milan \ Ferencvárosi | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 6 | 1 |
AC Milan goals in rows, Ferencvárosi goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AC Milan v Ferencvárosi?
AC Milan, at 65%. The full split is AC Milan 65%, draw 20%, Ferencvárosi 14%.
What is the most likely score in AC Milan v Ferencvárosi?
1–0, which comes up in 13.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AC Milan v Ferencvárosi?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.96 for AC Milan and 0.78 for Ferencvárosi.
Will both teams score in AC Milan v Ferencvárosi?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. AC Milan keep a clean sheet or Ferencvárosi fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Saturday 24 October. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.
