BundesligaSaturday, October 17 · 03:30 PM · 6th matchday
Werder Bremen – Paderborn
Werder Bremen
8th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.31
Paderborn
12th · attack 0.72 · defence 1.01
Our model makes Werder Bremen favourites for Werder Bremen – Paderborn, at 41%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Werder Bremen win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and Paderborn win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.22 goals for Werder Bremen and 0.94 for Paderborn, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 37% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.22 for Werder Bremen, 0.94 for Paderborn.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Werder Bremen wins; above it, Paderborn wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Werder Bremen goals in rows, Paderborn goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Werder Bremen v Paderborn?
Werder Bremen, at 41%. The full split is Werder Bremen 41%, draw 31%, Paderborn 27%.
What is the most likely score in Werder Bremen v Paderborn?
1–1, which comes up in 14.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Werder Bremen v Paderborn?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 37% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 65% of the time. Expected goals are 1.22 for Werder Bremen and 0.94 for Paderborn.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen v Paderborn?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Werder Bremen keep a clean sheet or Paderborn fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.