BundesligaFriday, October 23 · 08:30 PM · 7th matchday
VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Mönchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart
15th · attack 1.39 · defence 1.14
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.39
Our model makes VfB Stuttgart favourites for VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Mönchengladbach, at 64%. Kick-off October 23, 2026, 08:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, VfB Stuttgart win 64% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Borussia Mönchengladbach win 16%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.4% of simulations.
We expect 2.43 goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.19 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time and both teams scoring 64%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.43 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.19 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, VfB Stuttgart wins; above it, Borussia Mönchengladbach wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
VfB Stuttgart goals in rows, Borussia Mönchengladbach goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
VfB Stuttgart, at 64%. The full split is VfB Stuttgart 64%, draw 20%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 16%.
What is the most likely score in VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
2–1, which comes up in 9.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 2.43 for VfB Stuttgart and 1.19 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet or Borussia Mönchengladbach fail to score in the remaining 36%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.