BundesligaSaturday, October 10 · 03:30 PM · 5th matchday
TSG Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV
TSG Hoffenheim
14th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.38
Hamburger SV
16th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.37
Our model makes TSG Hoffenheim favourites for TSG Hoffenheim – Hamburger SV, at 60%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, TSG Hoffenheim win 60% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Hamburger SV win 18%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.0% of simulations.
We expect 2.14 goals for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.13 for Hamburger SV, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.14 for TSG Hoffenheim, 1.13 for Hamburger SV.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, TSG Hoffenheim wins; above it, Hamburger SV wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
TSG Hoffenheim goals in rows, Hamburger SV goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV?
TSG Hoffenheim, at 60%. The full split is TSG Hoffenheim 60%, draw 22%, Hamburger SV 18%.
What is the most likely score in TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV?
1–1, which comes up in 10.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 63% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.14 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.13 for Hamburger SV.
Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. TSG Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet or Hamburger SV fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.