BundesligaSaturday, October 17 · 03:30 PM · 6th matchday
Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 05
Schalke 04
11th · attack 0.75 · defence 1.13
FSV Mainz 05
6th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.13
Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 favourites for Schalke 04 – FSV Mainz 05, at 38%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Schalke 04 win 31% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and FSV Mainz 05 win 38%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.07 goals for Schalke 04 and 1.20 for FSV Mainz 05, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.07 for Schalke 04, 1.20 for FSV Mainz 05.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Schalke 04 wins; above it, FSV Mainz 05 wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Schalke 04 goals in rows, FSV Mainz 05 goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05, at 38%. The full split is Schalke 04 31%, draw 31%, FSV Mainz 05 38%.
What is the most likely score in Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05?
1–1, which comes up in 14.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 67% of the time. Expected goals are 1.07 for Schalke 04 and 1.20 for FSV Mainz 05.
Will both teams score in Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Schalke 04 keep a clean sheet or FSV Mainz 05 fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.