BundesligaSunday, October 11 · 05:30 PM · 5th matchday
SC Freiburg – Schalke 04
SC Freiburg
3rd · attack 1.14 · defence 1.19
Schalke 04
11th · attack 0.75 · defence 1.13
Our model makes SC Freiburg favourites for SC Freiburg – Schalke 04, at 54%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 05:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, SC Freiburg win 54% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Schalke 04 win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.63 goals for SC Freiburg and 0.89 for Schalke 04, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 48%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.63 for SC Freiburg, 0.89 for Schalke 04.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, SC Freiburg wins; above it, Schalke 04 wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
SC Freiburg goals in rows, Schalke 04 goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in SC Freiburg v Schalke 04?
SC Freiburg, at 54%. The full split is SC Freiburg 54%, draw 27%, Schalke 04 19%.
What is the most likely score in SC Freiburg v Schalke 04?
1–1, which comes up in 12.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in SC Freiburg v Schalke 04?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.63 for SC Freiburg and 0.89 for Schalke 04.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg v Schalke 04?
Both teams score in 48% of simulations. SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet or Schalke 04 fail to score in the remaining 52%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.