BundesligaSunday, October 25 · 05:30 PM · 7th matchday
SC Freiburg – FC Bayern München
SC Freiburg
3rd · attack 1.14 · defence 1.19
FC Bayern München
2nd · attack 2.22 · defence 0.87
Our model makes FC Bayern München favourites for SC Freiburg – FC Bayern München, at 67%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 05:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, SC Freiburg win 15% of the time, the draw comes up 18% and FC Bayern München win 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 8.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.24 goals for SC Freiburg and 2.64 for FC Bayern München, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time and both teams scoring 67%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.24 for SC Freiburg, 2.64 for FC Bayern München.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, SC Freiburg wins; above it, FC Bayern München wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
SC Freiburg goals in rows, FC Bayern München goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in SC Freiburg v FC Bayern München?
FC Bayern München, at 67%. The full split is SC Freiburg 15%, draw 18%, FC Bayern München 67%.
What is the most likely score in SC Freiburg v FC Bayern München?
1–2, which comes up in 8.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in SC Freiburg v FC Bayern München?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 74% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 91% of the time. Expected goals are 1.24 for SC Freiburg and 2.64 for FC Bayern München.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg v FC Bayern München?
Both teams score in 67% of simulations. SC Freiburg keep a clean sheet or FC Bayern München fail to score in the remaining 33%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.