BundesligaSaturday, October 10 · 06:30 PM · 5th matchday
RB Leipzig – Eintracht Frankfurt
RB Leipzig
9th · attack 1.34 · defence 1.05
Eintracht Frankfurt
10th · attack 1.28 · defence 1.34
Our model makes RB Leipzig favourites for RB Leipzig – Eintracht Frankfurt, at 58%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, RB Leipzig win 58% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Eintracht Frankfurt win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.3% of simulations.
We expect 2.27 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.34 for Eintracht Frankfurt, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time and both teams scoring 67%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.27 for RB Leipzig, 1.34 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, RB Leipzig wins; above it, Eintracht Frankfurt wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
RB Leipzig goals in rows, Eintracht Frankfurt goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt?
RB Leipzig, at 58%. The full split is RB Leipzig 58%, draw 21%, Eintracht Frankfurt 21%.
What is the most likely score in RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt?
2–1, which comes up in 9.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 2.27 for RB Leipzig and 1.34 for Eintracht Frankfurt.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt?
Both teams score in 67% of simulations. RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet or Eintracht Frankfurt fail to score in the remaining 33%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.