BundesligaSaturday, October 10 · 03:30 PM · 5th matchday
Paderborn – VfB Stuttgart
Paderborn
12th · attack 0.72 · defence 1.01
VfB Stuttgart
15th · attack 1.39 · defence 1.14
Our model makes VfB Stuttgart favourites for Paderborn – VfB Stuttgart, at 44%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Paderborn win 27% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and VfB Stuttgart win 44%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.8% of simulations.
We expect 1.04 goals for Paderborn and 1.40 for VfB Stuttgart, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.04 for Paderborn, 1.40 for VfB Stuttgart.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Paderborn wins; above it, VfB Stuttgart wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Paderborn goals in rows, VfB Stuttgart goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart?
VfB Stuttgart, at 44%. The full split is Paderborn 27%, draw 29%, VfB Stuttgart 44%.
What is the most likely score in Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart?
1–1, which comes up in 13.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.04 for Paderborn and 1.40 for VfB Stuttgart.
Will both teams score in Paderborn v VfB Stuttgart?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Paderborn keep a clean sheet or VfB Stuttgart fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.