BundesligaSaturday, October 24 · 03:30 PM · 7th matchday
Paderborn – Hamburger SV
Paderborn
12th · attack 0.72 · defence 1.01
Hamburger SV
16th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.37
Our model makes Paderborn favourites for Paderborn – Hamburger SV, at 45%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Paderborn win 45% of the time, the draw comes up 32% and Hamburger SV win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.25 goals for Paderborn and 0.83 for Hamburger SV, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 34% of the time and both teams scoring 41%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.25 for Paderborn, 0.83 for Hamburger SV.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Paderborn wins; above it, Hamburger SV wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 14 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Paderborn goals in rows, Hamburger SV goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Paderborn v Hamburger SV?
Paderborn, at 45%. The full split is Paderborn 45%, draw 32%, Hamburger SV 23%.
What is the most likely score in Paderborn v Hamburger SV?
1–0, which comes up in 14.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Paderborn v Hamburger SV?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 34% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 62% of the time. Expected goals are 1.25 for Paderborn and 0.83 for Hamburger SV.
Will both teams score in Paderborn v Hamburger SV?
Both teams score in 41% of simulations. Paderborn keep a clean sheet or Hamburger SV fail to score in the remaining 59%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.