BundesligaSaturday, October 24 · 03:30 PM · 7th matchday
FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen
FSV Mainz 05
6th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.13
Werder Bremen
8th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.31
Our model makes FSV Mainz 05 favourites for FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen, at 52%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, FSV Mainz 05 win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Werder Bremen win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.75 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.08 for Werder Bremen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.75 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.08 for Werder Bremen.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FSV Mainz 05 wins; above it, Werder Bremen wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
FSV Mainz 05 goals in rows, Werder Bremen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen?
FSV Mainz 05, at 52%. The full split is FSV Mainz 05 52%, draw 26%, Werder Bremen 23%.
What is the most likely score in FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen?
1–1, which comes up in 12.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.75 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.08 for Werder Bremen.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet or Werder Bremen fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.