BundesligaSaturday, October 10 · 03:30 PM · 5th matchday
FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FSV Mainz 05
6th · attack 1.06 · defence 1.13
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
5th · attack 1.48 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen favourites for FSV Mainz 05 – Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 45%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, FSV Mainz 05 win 29% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Bayer 04 Leverkusen win 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.32 goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.67 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.32 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.67 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FSV Mainz 05 wins; above it, Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
FSV Mainz 05 goals in rows, Bayer 04 Leverkusen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 45%. The full split is FSV Mainz 05 29%, draw 26%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 45%.
What is the most likely score in FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.32 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.67 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. FSV Mainz 05 keep a clean sheet or Bayer 04 Leverkusen fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.