BundesligaSaturday, October 10 · 03:30 PM · 5th matchday
FC Union Berlin – Elversberg
FC Union Berlin
17th · attack 0.87 · defence 1.34
Elversberg
7th · attack 1.27 · defence 1.31
Our model makes Elversberg favourites for FC Union Berlin – Elversberg, at 43%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, FC Union Berlin win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Elversberg win 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.45 goals for FC Union Berlin and 1.71 for Elversberg, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 64%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.45 for FC Union Berlin, 1.71 for Elversberg.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Union Berlin wins; above it, Elversberg wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
FC Union Berlin goals in rows, Elversberg goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Union Berlin v Elversberg?
Elversberg, at 43%. The full split is FC Union Berlin 32%, draw 25%, Elversberg 43%.
What is the most likely score in FC Union Berlin v Elversberg?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Union Berlin v Elversberg?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.45 for FC Union Berlin and 1.71 for Elversberg.
Will both teams score in FC Union Berlin v Elversberg?
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. FC Union Berlin keep a clean sheet or Elversberg fail to score in the remaining 36%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.