BundesligaSaturday, October 17 · 03:30 PM · 6th matchday
FC Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund
FC Union Berlin
17th · attack 0.87 · defence 1.34
Borussia Dortmund
1st · attack 1.48 · defence 0.89
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund favourites for FC Union Berlin – Borussia Dortmund, at 60%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, FC Union Berlin win 17% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Borussia Dortmund win 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.9% of simulations.
We expect 0.99 goals for FC Union Berlin and 1.99 for Borussia Dortmund, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.99 for FC Union Berlin, 1.99 for Borussia Dortmund.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Union Berlin wins; above it, Borussia Dortmund wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
FC Union Berlin goals in rows, Borussia Dortmund goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund, at 60%. The full split is FC Union Berlin 17%, draw 23%, Borussia Dortmund 60%.
What is the most likely score in FC Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund?
1–1, which comes up in 10.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 0.99 for FC Union Berlin and 1.99 for Borussia Dortmund.
Will both teams score in FC Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. FC Union Berlin keep a clean sheet or Borussia Dortmund fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.