BundesligaSaturday, October 24 · 03:30 PM · 7th matchday
FC Köln – Schalke 04
FC Köln
13th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.41
Schalke 04
11th · attack 0.75 · defence 1.13
Our model makes FC Köln favourites for FC Köln – Schalke 04, at 43%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, FC Köln win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Schalke 04 win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.38 goals for FC Köln and 1.05 for Schalke 04, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.38 for FC Köln, 1.05 for Schalke 04.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Köln wins; above it, Schalke 04 wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
FC Köln goals in rows, Schalke 04 goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Köln v Schalke 04?
FC Köln, at 43%. The full split is FC Köln 43%, draw 29%, Schalke 04 28%.
What is the most likely score in FC Köln v Schalke 04?
1–1, which comes up in 13.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Köln v Schalke 04?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 44% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.38 for FC Köln and 1.05 for Schalke 04.
Will both teams score in FC Köln v Schalke 04?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. FC Köln keep a clean sheet or Schalke 04 fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.