BundesligaSunday, October 11 · 03:30 PM · 5th matchday
FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach
FC Köln
13th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.41
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.39
Our model makes FC Köln favourites for FC Köln – Borussia Mönchengladbach, at 42%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, FC Köln win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Borussia Mönchengladbach win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.69 goals for FC Köln and 1.47 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 64%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.69 for FC Köln, 1.47 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Köln wins; above it, Borussia Mönchengladbach wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
FC Köln goals in rows, Borussia Mönchengladbach goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
FC Köln, at 42%. The full split is FC Köln 42%, draw 25%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 33%.
What is the most likely score in FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.69 for FC Köln and 1.47 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Will both teams score in FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. FC Köln keep a clean sheet or Borussia Mönchengladbach fail to score in the remaining 36%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.