BundesligaSaturday, October 17 · 06:30 PM · 6th matchday
FC Bayern München – RB Leipzig
FC Bayern München
2nd · attack 2.22 · defence 0.87
RB Leipzig
9th · attack 1.34 · defence 1.05
Our model makes FC Bayern München favourites for FC Bayern München – RB Leipzig, at 73%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, FC Bayern München win 73% of the time, the draw comes up 15% and RB Leipzig win 12%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 8.3% of simulations.
We expect 2.95 goals for FC Bayern München and 1.17 for RB Leipzig, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 78% of the time and both teams scoring 66%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.95 for FC Bayern München, 1.17 for RB Leipzig.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Bayern München wins; above it, RB Leipzig wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
FC Bayern München goals in rows, RB Leipzig goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Bayern München v RB Leipzig?
FC Bayern München, at 73%. The full split is FC Bayern München 73%, draw 15%, RB Leipzig 12%.
What is the most likely score in FC Bayern München v RB Leipzig?
2–1, which comes up in 8.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Bayern München v RB Leipzig?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 78% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 92% of the time. Expected goals are 2.95 for FC Bayern München and 1.17 for RB Leipzig.
Will both teams score in FC Bayern München v RB Leipzig?
Both teams score in 66% of simulations. FC Bayern München keep a clean sheet or RB Leipzig fail to score in the remaining 34%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.