BundesligaSaturday, October 24 · 03:30 PM · 7th matchday
FC Augsburg – FC Union Berlin
FC Augsburg
4th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.27
FC Union Berlin
17th · attack 0.87 · defence 1.34
Our model makes FC Augsburg favourites for FC Augsburg – FC Union Berlin, at 50%. Kick-off October 24, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, FC Augsburg win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and FC Union Berlin win 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.68 goals for FC Augsburg and 1.11 for FC Union Berlin, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.68 for FC Augsburg, 1.11 for FC Union Berlin.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Augsburg wins; above it, FC Union Berlin wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
FC Augsburg goals in rows, FC Union Berlin goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Augsburg v FC Union Berlin?
FC Augsburg, at 50%. The full split is FC Augsburg 50%, draw 26%, FC Union Berlin 24%.
What is the most likely score in FC Augsburg v FC Union Berlin?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Augsburg v FC Union Berlin?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.68 for FC Augsburg and 1.11 for FC Union Berlin.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg v FC Union Berlin?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet or FC Union Berlin fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.