BundesligaSaturday, October 10 · 03:30 PM · 5th matchday
FC Augsburg – FC Bayern München
FC Augsburg
4th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.27
FC Bayern München
2nd · attack 2.22 · defence 0.87
Our model makes FC Bayern München favourites for FC Augsburg – FC Bayern München, at 73%. Kick-off October 10, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, FC Augsburg win 11% of the time, the draw comes up 16% and FC Bayern München win 73%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 8.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.08 goals for FC Augsburg and 2.83 for FC Bayern München, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 75% of the time and both teams scoring 63%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.08 for FC Augsburg, 2.83 for FC Bayern München.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Augsburg wins; above it, FC Bayern München wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
FC Augsburg goals in rows, FC Bayern München goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Augsburg v FC Bayern München?
FC Bayern München, at 73%. The full split is FC Augsburg 11%, draw 16%, FC Bayern München 73%.
What is the most likely score in FC Augsburg v FC Bayern München?
1–2, which comes up in 8.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Augsburg v FC Bayern München?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 75% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 91% of the time. Expected goals are 1.08 for FC Augsburg and 2.83 for FC Bayern München.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg v FC Bayern München?
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet or FC Bayern München fail to score in the remaining 37%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.