BundesligaSaturday, October 17 · 03:30 PM · 6th matchday
Elversberg – FC Augsburg
Elversberg
7th · attack 1.27 · defence 1.31
FC Augsburg
4th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.27
Our model makes Elversberg favourites for Elversberg – FC Augsburg, at 54%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 03:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Elversberg win 54% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and FC Augsburg win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.2% of simulations.
We expect 2.04 goals for Elversberg and 1.30 for FC Augsburg, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time and both teams scoring 64%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.04 for Elversberg, 1.30 for FC Augsburg.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Elversberg wins; above it, FC Augsburg wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Elversberg goals in rows, FC Augsburg goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Elversberg v FC Augsburg?
Elversberg, at 54%. The full split is Elversberg 54%, draw 23%, FC Augsburg 23%.
What is the most likely score in Elversberg v FC Augsburg?
1–1, which comes up in 10.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Elversberg v FC Augsburg?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 65% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.04 for Elversberg and 1.30 for FC Augsburg.
Will both teams score in Elversberg v FC Augsburg?
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. Elversberg keep a clean sheet or FC Augsburg fail to score in the remaining 36%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.