BundesligaFriday, October 16 · 08:30 PM · 6th matchday
Eintracht Frankfurt – FC Köln
Eintracht Frankfurt
10th · attack 1.28 · defence 1.34
FC Köln
13th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.41
Our model makes Eintracht Frankfurt favourites for Eintracht Frankfurt – FC Köln, at 59%. Kick-off October 16, 2026, 08:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Eintracht Frankfurt win 59% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and FC Köln win 20%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.5% of simulations.
We expect 2.28 goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.29 for FC Köln, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time and both teams scoring 66%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.28 for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1.29 for FC Köln.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Eintracht Frankfurt wins; above it, FC Köln wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Eintracht Frankfurt goals in rows, FC Köln goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Köln?
Eintracht Frankfurt, at 59%. The full split is Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, draw 21%, FC Köln 20%.
What is the most likely score in Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Köln?
2–1, which comes up in 9.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Köln?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 69% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 2.28 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.29 for FC Köln.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt v FC Köln?
Both teams score in 66% of simulations. Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet or FC Köln fail to score in the remaining 34%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.