BundesligaSunday, October 18 · 05:30 PM · 6th matchday
Borussia Mönchengladbach – TSG Hoffenheim
Borussia Mönchengladbach
18th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.39
TSG Hoffenheim
14th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.38
Our model makes Borussia Mönchengladbach favourites for Borussia Mönchengladbach – TSG Hoffenheim, at 40% — but only 3.8% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 05:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Borussia Mönchengladbach win 40% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and TSG Hoffenheim win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.81 goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.72 for TSG Hoffenheim, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time and both teams scoring 69%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.81 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1.72 for TSG Hoffenheim.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Borussia Mönchengladbach wins; above it, TSG Hoffenheim wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Borussia Mönchengladbach goals in rows, TSG Hoffenheim goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Borussia Mönchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim?
Borussia Mönchengladbach, at 40%. The full split is Borussia Mönchengladbach 40%, draw 24%, TSG Hoffenheim 36%.
What is the most likely score in Borussia Mönchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim?
1–1, which comes up in 9.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Borussia Mönchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 68% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 1.81 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.72 for TSG Hoffenheim.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach v TSG Hoffenheim?
Both teams score in 69% of simulations. Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet or TSG Hoffenheim fail to score in the remaining 31%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.