BundesligaFriday, October 9 · 08:30 PM · 5th matchday
Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen
Borussia Dortmund
1st · attack 1.48 · defence 0.89
Werder Bremen
8th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.31
Our model makes Borussia Dortmund favourites for Borussia Dortmund – Werder Bremen, at 72%. Kick-off October 9, 2026, 08:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Borussia Dortmund win 72% of the time, the draw comes up 18% and Werder Bremen win 11%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.0% of simulations.
We expect 2.44 goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.85 for Werder Bremen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.44 for Borussia Dortmund, 0.85 for Werder Bremen.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Borussia Dortmund wins; above it, Werder Bremen wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Borussia Dortmund goals in rows, Werder Bremen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen?
Borussia Dortmund, at 72%. The full split is Borussia Dortmund 72%, draw 18%, Werder Bremen 11%.
What is the most likely score in Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen?
2–0, which comes up in 11.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.44 for Borussia Dortmund and 0.85 for Werder Bremen.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet or Werder Bremen fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.