Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sturm Graz wins; above it, Celje wins.
| Sturm Graz \ Celje | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
Sturm Graz goals in rows, Celje goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz | 4 | 1.25 | 0.91 | 2.03 |
| Celje | — | 0.82 | 1.90 | 0.92 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
