Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AEK Athens wins; above it, Real Madrid wins.
| AEK Athens \ Real Madrid | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
AEK Athens goals in rows, Real Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens | — | 1.04 | 1.01 | 0.92 |
| Real Madrid | 3 | 1.71 | 0.74 | 2.16 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
