Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Porto wins; above it, Napoli wins.
| Porto \ Napoli | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Porto goals in rows, Napoli goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 1 | 1.72 | 0.60 | 1.29 |
| Napoli | 9 | 1.25 | 0.83 | 0.95 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
