Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Arouca wins; above it, Rio Ave wins.
| Arouca \ Rio Ave | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Arouca goals in rows, Rio Ave goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arouca | 5 | 1.07 | 1.16 | 1.55 |
| Rio Ave | 17 | 0.92 | 1.20 | 1.07 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
