Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Casa Pia wins; above it, Sporting Braga wins.
| Casa Pia \ Sporting Braga | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Casa Pia goals in rows, Sporting Braga goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 16 | 0.85 | 1.12 | 0.86 |
| Sporting Braga | 8 | 1.51 | 0.85 | 1.69 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
