Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Marítimo wins; above it, Nacional wins.
| Marítimo \ Nacional | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Marítimo goals in rows, Nacional goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marítimo | 15 | 0.85 | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| Nacional | 13 | 0.89 | 1.18 | 1.13 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
