Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Vitória Guimarães wins; above it, Estrela Amadora wins.
| Vitória Guimarães \ Estrela Amadora | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 11 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Vitória Guimarães goals in rows, Estrela Amadora goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitória Guimarães | 14 | 1.09 | 0.97 | 1.66 |
| Estrela Amadora | 12 | 0.89 | 1.27 | 0.87 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
