Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Arsenal wins; above it, Manchester City wins.
| Arsenal \ Manchester City | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Arsenal goals in rows, Manchester City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1 | 1.32 | 0.61 | 1.51 |
| Manchester City | 3 | 1.50 | 0.90 | 0.91 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
