Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lens wins; above it, Toulouse wins.
| Lens \ Toulouse | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Lens goals in rows, Toulouse goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 9 | 1.26 | 0.92 | 1.72 |
| Toulouse | 12 | 1.04 | 1.10 | 0.95 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
