

Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Cagliari wins; above it, AC Milan wins.
| Cagliari \ AC Milan | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Cagliari goals in rows, AC Milan goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari | 9 | 0.87 | 1.19 | 0.93 |
| AC Milan | 4 | 1.35 | 0.95 | 1.61 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.