Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lecce wins; above it, Atalanta wins.
| Lecce \ Atalanta | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Lecce goals in rows, Atalanta goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce | 14 | 0.74 | 1.30 | 0.87 |
| Atalanta | 12 | 1.27 | 1.05 | 1.65 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
