Dixon-Coles
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Roma wins; above it, Monza wins.
| Roma \ Monza | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Roma goals in rows, Monza goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
| Team | Rank | Attack | Defence | Expected goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 3 | 1.60 | 0.82 | 2.94 |
| Monza | 18 | 1.02 | 1.66 | 0.84 |
Attack and defence are multipliers around 1, not goals per game. For defence, lower is better.
