Solutions · Sectors
Insurance & risk management
Pricing sporting uncertainty means being able to measure it.
Professional sport generates insurable risk — performance bonuses, qualification clauses, guarantees tied to a sporting outcome. Pricing them requires a probability, and that probability is exactly what we produce.
The problem it solves
A clause triggered “if the club qualifies for Europe” has an expected cost. That cost depends on a probability which moves every matchday, and which cannot be eyeballed without being badly wrong — in either direction.
What we supply
A quantified probability on the event to be covered — qualification, survival, reaching a contractual target — with its computation method documented. The full distribution, not just a central value: that is what makes pricing possible, since the cost depends on the tail as much as on the centre. And a sensitivity scenario: how the probability moves under different assumptions — a key player injured, the remaining fixture list, recent form.
A figure that lives with the season
A guarantee running over several months is not worth the same in August and in March. The probability is refreshed as the season goes on, which lets you track real exposure rather than freeze it at underwriting.
How far we go
A probability on its own is worth little until it becomes a premium. We can therefore work with your teams to build the pricing grid for an offer, bringing the measurement of sporting risk. The final conversion into a tariff, its loading and its regulatory frame remain your business: we are neither actuaries nor brokers, and we do not sign off a price.
Why us
Our models are the same whether they serve an article or a contract: rigour does not vary with the use, and the method stays auditable end to end. Useful for setting a fair price, and just as useful for justifying it if it is challenged.
A few concrete examples
- Probability of European qualification, with its interval, by matchday
- Full distribution of final positions — the tail as much as the centre
- Sensitivity scenario: the effect of a long absence on the probability
- History of past estimates, to test a pricing model against