Serie ASaturday, October 17 · 03:00 PM · 7th matchday
Venezia – Napoli
Venezia
20th · attack 0.78 · defence 1.58
Napoli
9th · attack 1.28 · defence 0.85
Our model makes Napoli favourites for Venezia – Napoli, at 68%. Kick-off October 17, 2026, 03:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Venezia win 13% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Napoli win 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 0.74 goals for Venezia and 2.03 for Napoli, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 45%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.74 for Venezia, 2.03 for Napoli.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Venezia wins; above it, Napoli wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Venezia goals in rows, Napoli goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Venezia v Napoli?
Napoli, at 68%. The full split is Venezia 13%, draw 20%, Napoli 68%.
What is the most likely score in Venezia v Napoli?
0–2, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Venezia v Napoli?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 0.74 for Venezia and 2.03 for Napoli.
Will both teams score in Venezia v Napoli?
Both teams score in 45% of simulations. Venezia keep a clean sheet or Napoli fail to score in the remaining 55%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.