Serie AWednesday, October 28 · 06:30 PM · 9th matchday
Venezia – Inter
Venezia
20th · attack 0.78 · defence 1.58
Inter
2nd · attack 1.97 · defence 0.91
Our model makes Inter favourites for Venezia – Inter, at 83%. Kick-off October 28, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Venezia win 6% of the time, the draw comes up 11% and Inter win 83%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–3, in 10.1% of simulations.
We expect 0.79 goals for Venezia and 3.11 for Inter, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 75% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.79 for Venezia, 3.11 for Inter.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Venezia wins; above it, Inter wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Venezia goals in rows, Inter goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Venezia v Inter?
Inter, at 83%. The full split is Venezia 6%, draw 11%, Inter 83%.
What is the most likely score in Venezia v Inter?
0–3, which comes up in 10.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Venezia v Inter?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 75% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 0.79 for Venezia and 3.11 for Inter.
Will both teams score in Venezia v Inter?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Venezia keep a clean sheet or Inter fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.