Serie ASunday, October 18 · 12:30 PM · 7th matchday
Udinese – Lecce
Udinese
13th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.20
Lecce
12th · attack 0.72 · defence 1.22
Our model makes Udinese favourites for Udinese – Lecce, at 50%. Kick-off October 18, 2026, 12:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Udinese win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Lecce win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.42 goals for Udinese and 0.87 for Lecce, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.42 for Udinese, 0.87 for Lecce.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Udinese wins; above it, Lecce wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 15 | 12 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Udinese goals in rows, Lecce goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Udinese v Lecce?
Udinese, at 50%. The full split is Udinese 50%, draw 27%, Lecce 23%.
What is the most likely score in Udinese v Lecce?
1–0, which comes up in 14.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Udinese v Lecce?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 40% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 66% of the time. Expected goals are 1.42 for Udinese and 0.87 for Lecce.
Will both teams score in Udinese v Lecce?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Udinese keep a clean sheet or Lecce fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.