Serie ASunday, October 25 · 08:45 PM · 8th matchday
Udinese – AC Milan
Udinese
13th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.20
AC Milan
5th · attack 1.30 · defence 0.90
Our model makes AC Milan favourites for Udinese – AC Milan, at 49%. Kick-off October 25, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Udinese win 26% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and AC Milan win 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.05 goals for Udinese and 1.56 for AC Milan, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.05 for Udinese, 1.56 for AC Milan.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Udinese wins; above it, AC Milan wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Udinese goals in rows, AC Milan goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Udinese v AC Milan?
AC Milan, at 49%. The full split is Udinese 26%, draw 25%, AC Milan 49%.
What is the most likely score in Udinese v AC Milan?
1–1, which comes up in 11.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Udinese v AC Milan?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.05 for Udinese and 1.56 for AC Milan.
Will both teams score in Udinese v AC Milan?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Udinese keep a clean sheet or AC Milan fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.