Serie AMonday, October 12 · 08:45 PM · 6th matchday
Torino – Udinese
Torino
14th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.24
Udinese
13th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.20
Our model makes Torino favourites for Torino – Udinese, at 38% — but only 1.2% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off October 12, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Torino win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Udinese win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.32 goals for Torino and 1.30 for Udinese, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 53%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.32 for Torino, 1.30 for Udinese.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Torino wins; above it, Udinese wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Torino goals in rows, Udinese goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Torino v Udinese?
Torino, at 38%. The full split is Torino 38%, draw 26%, Udinese 36%.
What is the most likely score in Torino v Udinese?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Torino v Udinese?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.32 for Torino and 1.30 for Udinese.
Will both teams score in Torino v Udinese?
Both teams score in 53% of simulations. Torino keep a clean sheet or Udinese fail to score in the remaining 47%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.