Serie AFriday, October 23 · 08:45 PM · 8th matchday
Torino – Monza
Torino
14th · attack 0.99 · defence 1.24
Monza
16th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.59
Our model makes Torino favourites for Torino – Monza, at 51%. Kick-off October 23, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Torino win 51% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Monza win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.75 goals for Torino and 1.17 for Monza, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.75 for Torino, 1.17 for Monza.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Torino wins; above it, Monza wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Torino goals in rows, Monza goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Torino v Monza?
Torino, at 51%. The full split is Torino 51%, draw 23%, Monza 26%.
What is the most likely score in Torino v Monza?
1–1, which comes up in 10.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Torino v Monza?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.75 for Torino and 1.17 for Monza.
Will both teams score in Torino v Monza?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Torino keep a clean sheet or Monza fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.