Serie ATuesday, October 27 · 06:30 PM · 9th matchday
Sassuolo – Lazio
Sassuolo
10th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.24
Lazio
3rd · attack 1.07 · defence 0.93
Our model makes Lazio favourites for Sassuolo – Lazio, at 40%. Kick-off October 27, 2026, 06:30 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Sassuolo win 33% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Lazio win 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.17 goals for Sassuolo and 1.33 for Lazio, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.17 for Sassuolo, 1.33 for Lazio.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sassuolo wins; above it, Lazio wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sassuolo goals in rows, Lazio goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sassuolo v Lazio?
Lazio, at 40%. The full split is Sassuolo 33%, draw 27%, Lazio 40%.
What is the most likely score in Sassuolo v Lazio?
1–1, which comes up in 12.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sassuolo v Lazio?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 71% of the time. Expected goals are 1.17 for Sassuolo and 1.33 for Lazio.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo v Lazio?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Sassuolo keep a clean sheet or Lazio fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.