Serie ASunday, October 11 · 06:00 PM · 6th matchday
Sassuolo – AC Milan
Sassuolo
10th · attack 1.13 · defence 1.24
AC Milan
5th · attack 1.30 · defence 0.90
Our model makes AC Milan favourites for Sassuolo – AC Milan, at 49%. Kick-off October 11, 2026, 06:00 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Sassuolo win 27% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and AC Milan win 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.13 goals for Sassuolo and 1.61 for AC Milan, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.13 for Sassuolo, 1.61 for AC Milan.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Sassuolo wins; above it, AC Milan wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Sassuolo goals in rows, AC Milan goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Sassuolo v AC Milan?
AC Milan, at 49%. The full split is Sassuolo 27%, draw 24%, AC Milan 49%.
What is the most likely score in Sassuolo v AC Milan?
1–1, which comes up in 11.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Sassuolo v AC Milan?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.13 for Sassuolo and 1.61 for AC Milan.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo v AC Milan?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Sassuolo keep a clean sheet or AC Milan fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.