Serie ATuesday, October 27 · 08:45 PM · 9th matchday
Roma – Cagliari
Roma
1st · attack 1.51 · defence 0.78
Cagliari
4th · attack 0.93 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Roma favourites for Roma – Cagliari, at 64%. Kick-off October 27, 2026, 08:45 PM.
Across the full score distribution, Roma win 64% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Cagliari win 14%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.85 goals for Roma and 0.73 for Cagliari, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time and both teams scoring 43%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recalculated nightly, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.85 for Roma, 0.73 for Cagliari.
Other markets
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Roma wins; above it, Cagliari wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Roma goals in rows, Cagliari goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Roma v Cagliari?
Roma, at 64%. The full split is Roma 64%, draw 22%, Cagliari 14%.
What is the most likely score in Roma v Cagliari?
1–0, which comes up in 14.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Roma v Cagliari?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 48% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.85 for Roma and 0.73 for Cagliari.
Will both teams score in Roma v Cagliari?
Both teams score in 43% of simulations. Roma keep a clean sheet or Cagliari fail to score in the remaining 57%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every market on this page are derived. It is recalculated nightly and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday, September 27. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.